Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Relapse vs. Mortality Statistics

At my meeting with Dr. Allerton yesterday, he reviewed with me the statistical probability of cancer relapse and cancer mortality. The analysis was based upon:
  1. Age: 38
  2. Gender: Male
  3. Comorbidity (Health Status - other than cancer diagnosis): Perfect
  4. Depth of Invasion: T4 - Maximum within the stage
  5. Positive Presence of Lymph Nodes: 1
  6. Examined Nodes (following surgical removal): >10
  7. Histologic Grade (Stage):  Grade 2
  8. Stage 3 (I was a stage, but treated as a Stage 3 due to minute cellular presence of cancer cells in one lymph node)
Calculation of risk of relapse within first 5 years 
without current post-surgery chemotherapy: 49%

Calculation of risk of relapse within first 5 years 
with current post-surgery FOLFURI chemotherapy treatment: 20%

Calculation of risk of mortality within the first five years 
without current post-surgery chemotherapy treatment: 42%

Calculation of risk of mortality within the first 5 years 
with current post-surgery FOLFURI chemotherapy treatment: 22%

I then asked Dr. Allerton if the software was able to account for there being no traceable cancer in the tissue removed with surgery and he said it was not. My specifics results are extremely uncommon in the world of oncology so there is no statistical equation for it. It's pretty much a random occurrence in their world.  (Gerson Therapy, BABY!!! Thank you everyone for your support. xoxo) However, he did provide say that considering the 100% disappearance of cancer from my system, the risk of relapse or mortality is even lower. I didn't ask him for a number, but I say it's down by another 50%, putting it at 10% relapse and 11% mortality.

I have to be honest - 10% ain't perfect, but it's pretty damn good when it comes to cancer. Yesterday was a good day.

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